Universal Fed Options Backtester · Any Ticker · Any Strategy
61 FED EVENTS2006–20257 STRATEGIESOFFLINE MODE
ANALYZE ANY TICKER →
QUICK:
Ticker
SPY
Name
S&P 500 ETF
Est. Price
$580
Typical IV
16%
Fed Sensitivity
MEDIUM
Avg Fed Move
1.4%
Beta vs SPY
1.0×
Sector
Broad Market
⚙ IV OVERRIDE:16%← drag to override IV · affects all options pricing calculations
NEXT FED EVENT
FOMC MEETING — JAN 28, 2026
--
DAYS
:
--
HRS
:
--
MIN
:
--
SEC
Current rate: 3.50–3.75% · Powell Chair term ends May 2026
📊 Backtester
⚖ Strategy Compare
🎯 Probability Engine
✏ Manual Data Entry
⚠ EDUCATIONAL USE ONLY — FedEdge shows historical backtested results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Options involve substantial risk. Not financial advice. Always consult a licensed advisor before trading.
Select Strategies to Backtest
SELECT ANY COMBINATION
YEARStoEVENTTONEDTE
Ticker
SPY
S&P 500 ETF
Events
—
in date range
Best Strategy
—
by win rate
Avg Move
—
on Fed event day
Top Win Rate
—
best strategy
Best Total P&L
—
per share
Cumulative P&L — SPY
PER SHARE · ALL SELECTED STRATEGIES
Event Detail
Click any row →
P&L This Event
Select an event
Event Log — SPY
— events
Win Rate by Strategy
Move Distribution
SPY
P&L by Fed Tone
EXPECTED MOVE %DIRECTION
Using: SPY · IV: 16%
All Strategies — Side by Side
SPY
Strategy
Est. Cost
Max Profit
Max Loss
Breakeven %
P&L at Move
Hist. Win Rate
IV Crush
Best Tone
Verdict
Payoff Diagram
AT EXPIRATION
P&L Sensitivity to Move Size
Best Strategy by Scenario
BASED ON 2006–2025 HISTORY
Scenario
Best Strategy
Historical Win Rate
Avg P&L
Why It Works
Forward Probability Calculator
NEXT FED EVENT
Probability of SPY Move Exceeding Threshold
Move Stats — SPY
Run calculator to see stats
Upcoming Events
Jan 28, 2026FOMC Meeting
Mar 18, 2026FOMC + SEP
Apr 29, 2026FOMC Meeting
Jun 17, 2026FOMC + SEP
Aug 2026Jackson Hole
Historical Probability Matrix — SPY
MOVE THRESHOLDS vs WIN RATES
Strategy
P(≥0.5%)
P(≥1%)
P(≥1.5%)
P(≥2%)
P(≥3%)
P(≥5%)
Avg Cost
Hist. Win%
Add Your Own Historical Data BETA
Don't see your ticker's data? Enter the actual move % for each Fed event date manually.
Once entered, the backtester uses your real data instead of estimates.
When the backend is connected, this updates automatically via Yahoo Finance.
Enter Historical Moves
MANUAL OVERRIDE
Fed Event Move Data — Enter actual % moves (positive = up, negative = down)
Live Data (Backend)
WHEN CONNECTED
When your backend server is running, FedEdge automatically fetches real historical moves for any ticker from Yahoo Finance. No manual entry needed.